Old Orchard, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

742
FXUS61 KGYX 070546
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
146 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over New England through the remainder
of the week with temperatures near seasonable averages.
Increasing heat and humidity is then expected this weekend
through the middle of next week. Aside from some isolated
showers and storms, it will remain mostly dry across the region
into early next week. Smoke and haze may try to return to the
area today into Friday as winds become southwesterly.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Nighttime microphysics and water vapor satellite imagery early
this Thursday morning shows clouds streaming from generally
southwest to northeast over the region south of the mountains.
These clouds are associated with a frontal boundary over the
Mid-Atlantic region along with a H5 s/wv trof axis. Northeast
radar mosaic shows some weak returns over portions of
southwestern NH and into southern VT and these could be
resulting in a few sprinkles but otherwise it will continue to
be a dry morning across the region. Similar to the last several
days, the coolest readings are towards the Moosehead Lake region
where clear skies have allowed temperatures to fall into the
40s while 60s prevail in most other locations. A few additional
degrees of cooling can be expected through sunrise.

Strong high pressure will remain in control today with just an
isolated shower/storm possible this afternoon and early evening
across western NH and the White Mountains (20-30%). Mainly
cloudy skies south of the mountains this morning will become
partly cloudy later in the day with high temperatures within a
few degrees either side of 80 degrees, which is around the
seasonable average. Some haze is possible but overall it should
be clearer than recent days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The combination of clear skies and light flow tonight will allow
for radiational cooling and therefore used MOS guidance for
overnight lows. This brings readings down into the upper 40s
across some interior valleys with 50s in most other locations.
Valley fog will likely to develop overnight and extend into
early Friday morning.

Other than perhaps an isolated shower (<=20%) towards the
Canadian Border, Friday will feature continued dry conditions
with high pressure remaining overhead. Skies will be partly to
mostly sunny with high temperatures once again within a few
degrees either side of 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
01Z NBM Update...No major changes in the latest NBM with main
story in the long term is increasing confidence in multi day
heat with highs into the upper 80s to low 90s Sunday through
Wednesday. Latest EFI and NAEFS highlight Tuesday as the peak of
the heat with humidly also increasing Tuesday into Wednesday. A
frontal system will approach Wednesday bringing the next chance
for at least scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Previously...

Pattern Overview: Surface high pressure stays locked in through
the majority of the long term forecast period. Deep layer
ridging builds early next week which comes with more heat and
humidity. The models diverge toward mid-week, with some
suggesting the ridging stays in place while others suggest we
may get a frontal passage and our best chance at somewhat
widespread showers we have seen as of late.


Impacts and Key Messages:
* Heat and humidity return early next week with heat indices
  around 90-95F possible in some areas.
* The extended forecast continues to have little in the way of
  precipitation, and with a signal for above normal
  temperatures, an expansion of abnormally dry conditions in the
  region seems likely.

Details:

Saturday and Sunday: Saturday looks very similar to Friday with
the shortwave starting overhead and sliding east offshore.
Expect some clouds in and around the mountains, along with a
chance for an isolated shower/storm, with clear skies prevailing
elsewhere. Temperatures continue to trend upward as high
pressure remains in control, but only slightly so on Saturday.
South of the mountains looks to top out in the low to mid-80s
once again, with more in the way of low 80s to the north.
Dewpoints trend upward as well, making for a slightly warmer
night with temperatures bottoming out in the upper 50s to around
60. With the trough positioned offshore and potentially phasing
with a low pressure system, there will be enough of a northwest
flow to keep some clouds in the mountains Sunday, but chances
of showers go away as deep layer ridging begins to build in. As
the warming trend continues, high temperatures on Sunday stand
to climb near 90 in many locations. Dewpoints stay rising as
well, limiting low temperatures to the low to mid-60s Sunday
night.

Monday-Wednesday: Models are in fairly good agreement at the
moment that ridging stays in place through the better part of
Tuesday. This would continue to lend itself to rising heat and
humidity with heat indices potentially rising near 95F in some
locations by Tuesday. Models diverge after this, with the the
Euro suggesting ridging stays in place through Wednesday, but
this is the outlier. The GFS and Canadian suite suggest a
frontal passage Tuesday night or Wednesday which would come with
some chances for showers. This will be a period to watch as we
look for any kind of relief from the dry spell. It is also worth
noting that we are heading into the historically busy time for
the tropics, so keeping tabs on that will be important as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Other than late night and early morning valley FG
at KLEB and perhaps KHIE, VFR conditions will prevail through
the period. Light and variable flow at night will become S-SW at
5-15 kts during the daytime hours. No LLWS is anticipated
through the period.

Long Term...VFR ceilings will prevail during the day through
Monday as high pressure stays over the region. Restrictions may
come during the overnight and early morning periods as
increasing low level moisture will lend itself to fog formation.
Some very isolated thunderstorms are possible in the mountains
on Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...High pressure will remain near or over the waters
through the period with S-SW winds of 5-15 kts and seas of 1-3
ft.

Long Term...Wind gusts and seas remain below SCA criteria
through the day Sunday. Long period swell from a passing low
pressure system may briefly bring seas up to around 5ft Sunday
evening into early Monday morning. Winds look to be generally
southerly with gusts up to 15kts.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Baron/Schroeter